Less than a year ago it seemed that Tesla is doomed. Every headline, every news report was telling us how this company is on brink of bankruptcy, how Elon Musk is immature, impulsive Twitter troll who needs an "adult in the room" and how competition from China and Germany will soon make Tesla obsolete and nothing more than a chapter in history books, much like the General Motors EV1.
Pundits were telling us how often the first product in the market is not the one which ultimately moves the needle and becomes widespread success, much like how Apple wasn't the the maker of first MP3 player or first smartphone, Tesla was first, but wasn't going to be the Apple of electric cars.
7 months ago Tesla stock was trading at $185, today it is about to hit $500, and many of the rational, independent-thinking and irrational crowd-following short sellers have liquidated their positions.
From doom and gloom to Elon Musk dancing on stage in China in span of just little over half a year. What happened?
The sad reality is that nothing happened. Nothing of substance and nothing in the real world. Action which moved sentiment happened in the financial markets.
It is not the spotty faced gen-Z teenagers buying Tesla in their Robinhood accounts, who move the market and force experienced hedge fund managers to book big losses, both financial and losses in reputation - it is the central banks.
Nothing else matters, but the money printing which is feeding inflation across all assets since 2008, and even since 1970s, if you look hard enough.
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) proponents will tell you how money supply is not growing out of control and how government debt is your surplus. The rest of us who are not lunatics understand that government debt (or "surplus", if you like) and Quantitative Easing are just obfuscated terms for the same old money printing. Call it what you want.
Most of the bearish talking points are just as true now as they were 7 months ago, and there is nothing particular about the performance of Tesla Motors during this time. It is just a part of global buyout of assets with freshly printed money, and it doesn't matter if it is Tesla, Nio, Wework or BitConnect.
While understanding this, we must also not fail to recognize how Tesla is different from other financially upside-down "Grand Unicorns". Unlike WeWork, Uber, Peleton, Netflix, Snapchat, Beyond Meat, Lyft and all the other "trash", Tesla is actually producing real, physical products and has physical assets. It is rare that in USA any company, much less a stock market darling, is producing anything real. Most are software companies or financial/services "nothing" companies.
In fact the entire United States economy is a "nothing" economy by large, with the largest export being the US dollar itself - again a "nothing" product, printed on nothing and backed by nothing.
I have never owned or short-sold Tesla stock and I would have recommended against doing either at almost any stage, especially today. However, I do have lots of respect for Tesla Motors and I recognize that it is world leader in several important areas.
Tesla have the biggest archive of driving footage ready for machine learning use, they have custom silicon performing very fast self-driving neural network inference, they have dedicated large scale battery factories, car factories and proven electric car designs. They also have fantastic global network of fast charging stations and, of course, very strong brand presence.
If there was one Unicorn I wish could survive the coming financial markets crash, it would be Tesla. Even if they do not survive, Elon Musk's Tesla will always be remembered as the one electric car company which forced the rest of the industry to electrify. And electrification is coming with or without the money printing.