49 Tesla stock looks like the 2017 crypto bubble

Cover for Tesla stock looks like the 2017 crypto bubble

With Tesla (TSLA) stock just about touching $900 in the pre-market session of February 4th 2020, I can't help but notice similarities with 2017 cryptocurrency bubble.

In particular, the Tesla stock dynamics remind me of multi-shelf pump & dump pattern played out in altcoins, such as Cardano.

This multi-shelf pattern does not appear to be smooth exponential but rather a stepped increase in price, followed by steep blow-off top.

The stepped phase of Tesla stock pump has played out over much wider time axis, but the blow-off phase appears to be at least as steep if not steeper than Bitcoin and altcoin tops in late 2017.

For Cardano, the stratospheric rise gave way to somewhat slower deflation period with over 95% losses for the investors who bought at the peak.

tesla-stock-looks-like-2.png?550x800m

For TSLA buyers jumping in at this time, losses will likely be less dramatic and largely dependent on macroeconomics, specifically, the amount of central bank money printing and asset buying that will follow any natural market correction.

4m ago by FastestLaps
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FastestLaps  6d ago

Let's see if we have a brand new human carrying orbital vehicle today. For the first time in 40 years.

 

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benedekpuskas  5d ago

It looks alright yet, the "Crew" will link to the International Space Station exactly 5 hours from now.


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FastestLaps  5d ago @benedekpuskas

But unlike cargo missions, this one is nail biting all the way until the moment the Dragon lands in sea on return trip. Can't really celebrate before success of return flight.


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Cocobe  5d ago @FastestLaps

Haha that’s exactly what my wife said. She was like, why was I posting on Instagram and celebrating so early. What if they don’t return? ☠️


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aaayy  5d ago

Honestly, no matter what you think about Elon Musk, you have to agree that this is amazing. They were using a booster that had been used in three prior orbital flights, and in addition the booster landed itself on a pad floating in the ocean, ready for another flight. Just 10 years ago, this whole launch would’ve been seen as impossible. People didn’t think that a private company could launch people to orbit, that they could reuse boosters multiple times, and that they could land the booster rockets in the ocean. In addition, Musk is claiming that the Crew Dragon capsule is also reusable, which cuts down costs hugely. It’s incredible.


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benedekpuskas  5d ago @aaayy

I don't think the capsule is reusable...
Returning to the atmosphere is really, really, really damaging.


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FastestLaps  5d ago @Cocobe

Reentry is even more dangerous than launch. Especially for a brand new vehicle like the crew dragon.


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FastestLaps  5d ago @benedekpuskas

It was designed from the get go as reusable craft. Whether or not they will actually risk it and reuse it, remains to be seen.


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FastestLaps  5d ago @aaayy

Yeah he deserves some respect. And who cares if he has PR failures and he says some stupid shit on Twitter and makes some totally unrealistic promises and timelines.

I actually wish I had some of his wacky optimism and ambition.


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aaayy  4d ago @benedekpuskas

It is. They reused the old Dragon capsules multiple times, and this one is planned to be reusable too. NASA’s own Orion capsules are designed to be reused up to 10 times I believe.


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FreedaBees  3m ago

Please update the chart to reflect current prices. :-)

Definitely a crypto.




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FreedaBees  4m ago

Fingers will be burnt. The Saudis sold out, as did at least one analyst who was predicting $7K while selling their own holdings.


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Hans  4m ago

Idiots pump this shit becouse its trendy now.


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Cocobe  4m ago

$500 I get it... but putting together essentially 2 +20% days in a week, after a week that already went up 10%. This is just stupid. It makes sense to price a company 1-2 years from today. This price has priced it for like 10 years and that is IF the other car manufacturers don't take over. That being said, as of now, the likes of the Mercedes EQC, Audi Etron, and Ipace have been a joke in terms of ownership experience. Charging is difficult, range is limited, prices are higher, and none of them have the "look at me, I drive an EV" badge.
Car business has never been high margin like the current crop of tech companies. Apple gets $5 billion from google every year for just putting google as the default search engine on safari. That is 100% profit at zero cost. Cars on the other hand, are subject to warranties, recalls, sizable factories and shipping problems, liabilities. You'll never get the profits to justify a "$7000" target price by 2024.